Projecting how many points will the Whitecaps need to make the playoffs or better

Possibilities

To discuss this topic of how many points does the Whitecaps have to have in the end of the season, you will have to set the expectation first. As different fans, have different goals and targets to this point total at the end of the season. I would say anywhere from the 3rd seed to the 7th seed is an realistic expectation for the Caps, you might just want just a playoff spot as it will be an improvement from last year and you make the MLS playoffs, well at this stage of the season of being 6th in the league but being sandwiched in this brawl to make the playoffs or even better. While for the supporters that are aiming for 3rd or 4th for the Whitecaps, they're probably more optimistic about things, as it will be very hard to overcome some of the teams above us currently. But it is a realistic expectation even though it might be slightly optimistic but it's very much possible. Well now, there is a difference between expectations and possibility, for the possibility perspective, obviously there is possibility for us to be 3rd even 2nd maybe as a very unlikely event, but it is a possibility you go down obviously, as I mentioned before that the line for you to not even make the wildcard match is 5 points which is for sure not a lot, 2 bad matches and there is a chance of you being out of the playoff picture. So the possibilities are almost endless here, for the Whitecaps' expectation and possibility.

History

Now if we date back to the 2022 season, we will see the 7th seed to make the playoffs in the Western Conference was 47 points. But they added a expansion team this season of St Louis City SC, whose far beyond everybody else in the west. While the MLS also changed the format slightly, by making the 8th and 9th seed in each conference will battle to make the final spot which is the 8th seed to face the number 1 seed in a also newly changed Best Of 3 series. But in certain years, the LA Galaxy had 48 points but still missed out on the playoffs. So each year, each conference will change, so you will see that maybe the top 8 teams in the West or East is very good, but the remaining teams in this conference is not good, so one team out of that 8 teams will fail to get an automatic playoff spot, if it was last year they would've been out of the playoffs immediately. Now to get a home field boost, for the first round playoff Best Of 3 series, you would have to be a top 4 seed, last season you only had to total 50 points to get the 4th seed, but the year before in 2021 the team in the 4th seed is the Timbers, who had 55 points. So for whatever season the conference is having, that would heavily impact the projected points that you would need to either get over that playoff line or get a home field boost in the first round. Also for the potential wildcards teams, if the Whitecaps struggle towards the end of the season then that may be where they finish, the Caps finished 9th last season on 43 points, while the 8th place team Portland finished with 46 points, in 2021 it was 48 points for the 8th, and 45 points for the 9th. The Whitecaps currently with 37 points, with 8 games remaining here in this 2023 regular season.

Schedule

So this is another thing that is important to this is the schedule, some teams above and below us got harder opponents than us but some got easier opponents than us to end off the year. So as the games in hand that the Whitecaps have over some of the teams, with 2 games in hand over Seattle, 1 game in hand over Real Salt Lake and Houston who are just 1 point above us. While the Whitecaps' opponents these games are Toronto, Houston, RSL, Colorado, D.C United, St Louis, Seattle and LAFC on decision day. And oh boy, some of these matches mean tremendously here, as at this point in the season in the position that the Caps are in, they can't afford to drop many points or they'll drop down in the standings. So the games in hand will be crucial, but we still have 4 games in a row away in this road trip and it is statistically that teams play substantially better when playing at home in front of their supporters. While after these 4 games, 3 of the last 4 games will be at home.

Final Projection

Due to this battle to make the playoffs or better in this Western Conference, it will be difficult to make it with only 45 points, as it is a brawl and a fight in the Western Conference, so maybe the Caps will get fortunate and get the 9th place if they only manage to get 8 points in the last 8 games. But I suspect that the average amount of points which is around 48 points will be enough for the Whitecaps to gain a automatic playoff spot. But maybe due to this Western Conference feast here, you may need 1 or 2 more points to get a automatic playoff spot, so I would say 49-50 points by the end of the season will guarantee the Caps to make a automatic playoff spot. As even though the Western Conference currently has been tight, we do find that some certain teams will struggle towards the end of the season. Now to get top 4 to get the home field advantage in the first round, with how tight this conference is there might not be much separation between #4 and #7 as last season the separation was 3 points. So if the 7th seed is around 49 points, then for the Caps to get 4th is around 53 points. But there are endless possibilities to what point total does the Whitecaps need to make the playoffs. So around 4 wins and 1 draw will probably guide the Whitecaps into the MLS playoffs this season. And probably 5 wins and 1-2 draws will make the Whitecaps be a top 4 seed.